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pre Super Tuesday post + virus

Alright, here we go, big day tomorrow.

Biden survived South Carolina, maintaining the African American vote, at least in one distinctly conservative state where Biden may well be a better GE candidate than Sanders.

Importantly, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Steyer are now out. Warren and Bloomberg are staying in. Glenn Greenwald [Intercept 2020.03.02] has a good take on it, and I agree with it. Biden is already the weaker general election candidate, and the Dem party alienating Sanders voters would make him even weaker.

For tomorrow, the crystal ball says (by votes): Sanders 36%, Biden 28%, Warren 16%, Bloomberg 12%, All others 8%. Let’s see what happens.


In other news we got the coronavirus, quite possibly coming to a population center near you. US disaster response hasn’t been all that it could be, so this is a real point of concern. China, Korea, and Japan have gone to great lengths to keep it contained. Italy has cordoned off part of the country. Meanwhile, it would seem the US hasn’t made full use of the month or so of head start we got. I’m not particularly optimistic. That said, any “prepper” talk is way overboard in my opinion.

The things I can do are limited, and mainly involve immune system health: (1) get plenty of sleep (2) limit alcohol consumption (3) no smoking of any kind.

Iowa: wtf (update1)

UPDATE- PARTIAL RESULTS – TUES ~6PM EST

Ok, as of 5pm the day after, they managed to collect 62% of the results – i.e. they collected less than 1100 pieces of data in one day. This would be trivially easy, even without modern tech. It is a process that was reliable in the pre-fax-machine age. There’s something else going on.

With 62% of precincts reporting:

Delegate results: Buttigieg 27%, Sanders 25%, Warren 18%, Biden 16%, Klobuchar 13%

Vote results: Sanders 26%, Buttigieg 25%, Warren 21%, Biden 13%, Klobuchar 12%

Note that Sanders had more supporters than Buttigieg, but the quantization and reallocation worked in Buttigieg’s favor. I am a little unclear why the RealClearPolitics page is not assigning any delegates in their estimate to Biden or Klobuchar at this time. In any case, Biden and Klobuchar being under 15% in votes would be a concern for them going forward — i.e. they will want Mayor Pete out.

If the full statewide results extrapolate from this, it would be a little disappointing for Sanders, who came ~5-10% under some polls, and a complete disaster for Biden, who came in ~40% below what he was polling. Klobuchar and Buttigieg outperformed. In what may be a sign of things to come for Bloomberg, billionaire Steyer got nothing after spending more than $100M of his own money and flooding the airwaves.

Going forward, the question will be how long it can remain a 5-way race. It is possible that the Biden team figures they can get more delegates by using Buttigieg and Klobuchar as placeholders than by using Biden himself. While this may not be as crazy as it sounds for the DNC itself, it would be a spectacular sign of weakness for the general election. Alternatively, and probably more likely, Buttigieg and Klobuchar might fade as the next contests will be far from their home turf in geographical distance, demographics, and regional culture. More to come.


ORIGINAL POST, TUES ~8AM EST

What a load of BS. Each caucus has a single page “results sheet”. It is public information, there are dozens of witnesses for each. Take a damn picture with your phone and email it in. How can they not figure this out? There are a couple hundred [correction- 1765] precincts from which a handful of numbers are to be collected. A clerk could have them entered into a spreadsheet in an hour or two at most. A team of 12 year olds organized in the obvious way would have it in done in 20 minutes.

I think they don’t want to report the results.

 

MLK, non-violence, media, Vietnam [Matt Taibbi/Rolling Stone, 2018]

Belated for Monday’s holiday.

link: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/before-the-media-lionized-martin-luther-king-jr-they-denounced-him-629494/

[via Taibbi’s twitter]

US forces status Iraq [Juan Cole]

link: https://www.juancole.com/2020/01/declares-occupying-jeopardy.html

Escalation: Trump has Iran general assassinated in Baghdad

The pentagon announced an air strike that killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, stating in the very first sentence that it was directly ordered by Trump.  The general was a popular figure in Iraq for bringing Iranian assistance to fight off ISIS. The strike took place in Baghdad as he was arriving for the funeral of Iran-allied Iraqi militias recently killed by another controversial airstrike.

This action was a major escalation of tensions, and deeply ill-advised. In case there is any doubt that the effect on local sentiment was not known beforehand, note that the State Dept. immediately advised all US citizens to leave Iraq. It looks like Iraq will turn away from the US a lot faster than would otherwise have happened. US troops will be less free to move around in the region, and there is now a serious possibility that they will have to leave Iraq entirely, which would put pressure on the (technically illegal) US presence in eastern Syria. Iran is now under pressure to retaliate, which could escalate the situation even further. Not a good start to the year.

Happy 2020!

May it bring peace and goodness to all!

Goodbye 2019!

Here we are, another trip around the sun. Time to reflect.

For starters, it can’t hurt to be thankful. Returning to NYC for the holidays, never long enough to get re-acclimated to the population density, has a way of reminding me of that. In a “There but for the grace of God, goes I” kind of way.

I spent most of the year in a stable and loving relationship. That’s a blessing, really is.

Work was all right too. I did 2 things that were somewhat new.

One was an unremarkable OEM sensing device for a manufacturer of automation building blocks used by medical(ish) device manufacturers in the EU(ish). But it was my first properly built electronics project – I did firmware, fluid systems, and software before. It is now getting deployed and it all came together great(ish*). By the time it was done I was pretty sick of it, but it’s nice to have something work.

Second is one that maybe someone will find amusing. It is to be an OEM fluid system, for a minor but important function of a popular and rather pricy scientific device. In spite of well known rules of thumb of tech development, we’re gonna simultaneously have: low unit cost, low development cost, low part count, low consumption of a magic chemical that is involved, absurdly clean chemical purity, high reliability, fully automated / zero human intervention / idiot proof (in contrast to the previous technology), and improve the main performance figures of the previous technology by at least a factor of 3. It’s gonna be great. Did I mention low unit cost?

There are a couple of competitors who could also do the job.  The high price competitor (industry leader etc) happens to be a subsidiary of the customer, and was immediately rejected due to corporate infighting. The low price competitor was even more of a lowballer than we are. This is a good thing. They were initially chosen and went down in flames. So by process of elimination, and some other factors that don’t belong on the internet, that left us.

This year I built a handful of bench prototypes of the darn thing, to study the performance characteristics. As a consequence of the chemical purity, low part count, low price, and low chemical use, it is now a very delicate fluid system, but that’s what I’ve been doing for 10+ years so it’s all good. However, foolishly believing these were just bench prototypes for study, I omitted the parts that would be there to ensure reliability in previous production systems of this kind. To my horror, they not only “worked”, but were sold as-is (in spite of my protests), and the project is getting green lighted with an “official” cost estimate (also in spite of my protests) based on the incomplete prototypes. Next year will be interesting. Lesson to be learned, not quite sure what.

Anyway, in preparation for failure modes I expect will slowly materialize from what is now a too-aggressively cost-minimized specification, I became suddenly interested in thermodynamics. Mainly stuff relating to vapor-liquid equilibrium of mixtures that would be basic for a chemist, but was glossed over in my training as an engineer. But also the ways micro bubbles forming on axisymmetric geometry can end up with saddle curvature, and how this can have surprising (and if your luck is weird enough, actually relevant) stability implications compared to the more often studied spherical case. A trip down the rabbit hole and strangely fun. And I realized that attempting an impossible task but learning a lot** on the way is 100x more rewarding than succeeding at something relatively low risk. We’re all masochists. But I knew that already.

Also that the trick to living in a dilbert comic strip is good coffee. Blessed be the perks of the small college town.


Oh yeah this is my politics blog. Trump is still the same. The poll numbers are still the same. The official Democratic party is still the same, that is, mostly useless. Dronings are up, proper wars are down***. Election season is on. Many more people are taking Bernie/Warren seriously. That’s a good thing.

Also, it seems someone liked the bumper sticker on my car. I accidentally left a car window rolled down for 4 days (in the city!), and when I went to move it this morning, not only was everything was still there, including probably several $ worth of change in the center console,  but someone decided to deposit a pack of Bernie stickers and pins/buttons in the passenger seat where the window was open. Thanks!

That’s going to be it for 2019. See you on the other side!


* There was the part when I was directed to change to a cost-reduced manufacturer in the first production run. It was exactly as the folk wisdom of the industry foretold. The new manufacturer shipped the assemblies with unauthorized part substitutions in the one place they would make the most difference. One of those rare events that somehow doesn’t seem rare. [Like finding the power hooked up backwards, which somehow goes undetected until the same week when the customer is facing a deadline that they are behind on. “It was working and it suddenly stopped, I have no idea what happened – how long do you think it will take to fix it?”. Right.]

** Not the first time / another pattern of events that somehow doesn’t seem so rare…

*** Update: protesters are trying to set the US embassy in Iraq on fire. Not sure how to count that.