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Election 2020 (V) — Arizona

November 5, 2020

Between yesterday midday and now (noonish eastern), Trump votes have taken about 20k+ votes off Biden’s margin. This suggests a pace which might change the outcome.

To get a hint whether or not this rate of change will continue, I’d look at the map by US House of Representatives districts. Not by counties. County population is all over the place. House districts have similar population (in theory same), thus more useful for analysis.

Per the ABC news House map (click on AZ), and from wikipedia:

2020 AZ-1: 52-48 Dem (87% reporting, ~305k votes) , 2018: 54-46

AZ-2: 57-43 (85%, ~335k votes), 2018: 55-45

AZ-3: 65-35 (90%, ~230k votes), 2018: 64-36

AZ-4: 31-69 (95%, ~345k votes), 2018: 31-68

AZ-5: 43-57 (94%, ~380k votes), 2018: 41-59

AZ-6: 51-49 (87%, ~365k votes), 2018: 45-55

AZ-7: 77-23 (89%, ~179k votes), 2018: 85-0 (uncontested)

AZ-8: 41-59 (91%, ~370k votes), 2018: 44-55

AZ-9: 63-37 (88%, ~304k votes), 2018 House: 61-39

Yesterday, I suspected the Republican-leaning AZ-6 house district was lagging slightly behind the others in the AZ counting, at “80%”, with the others in the high 80’s. Now it is “87%”, so largely caught up. This district was 55-45 Republican in 2018, so it will turn more red probably. I think it was over-represented in the past 24 hours’ change.

At this point, if ABC’s estimates of “remaining votes” are accurate (I wonder), then the Republican-leaning districts are more fully counted. This would be good for Biden.

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