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Election 2020 (II) [updated]

November 4, 2020

Just before midnight eastern time. Looks like the map I predicted so far, except that AZ and NC change places, with Trump winning NC outperforming polls there by something like ~4 points as of now, and Biden takes AZ, probably also outperforming polls there but by an by an unclear margin, which speaks to the Hispanic vote.

GA and NV are not yet in. Unless Biden wins GA, it will pretty much be down to PA. [update, not true, late night sloppy arithmetic off by 1]

UPDATE – with the morning light here, the upper midwest is looking closer than expected, but with remaining ballots being mail-in’s, it will shift back toward Biden. So on the one hand, Trump again outperforms polls in WI and MI, which many think predicts Trump winning PA. However, it does seem to me Biden will win both WI and MI (and he pretty much has to), with ~11% and ~16% still to count, respectively.

In the above scenario, which I now think is the most likely one, Biden would win 270-268, picking up one electoral vote in Nebraska (and losing one in Maine)! Proportional representation in action!

Also, it still possible that Biden wins GA or NC. In NC, ~250k to count, he is down ~73k, so would need ~63% of remaining ballots.

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