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Election 2020 (VI)

November 6, 2020

So my call on AZ and subsequent theory about the state’s voting pattern is looking shaky (although at current rate of closure the result should still hold, doing the arithmetic in my head from 538’s livestream report).

Looking at the House of Reps map, to see where the ballots came from, tonight’s batch of ballots came from all over the state fairly evenly (“3-5%” of the expected vote in the various congressional districts), and Trump continued to gain a substantial amount. 2 of the 4 more heavily R districts are now nearly done counting FWIW (PA-5 98%, PA-4 99%), so the remaining ballots should have a slight bias towards D districts, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the ballots themselves will reflect that.

On the other hand, GA is looking very likely to flip to Biden. There will likely be a recount, though the state of the Senate races may impact how that decision is played. PA as well.

Perpetual election night goes on. Ready for it to end….

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