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2020 Poll: Repubs ahead on issues, Dems win big anyway by not being Trump

February 1, 2019

I dug into the Jan 25-27 Morning Consult / Politico survey. (via 538). Note that it is much too early to draw conclusions. I hope to revisit this periodically over the coming year.

Takeaways (again, take with an enormous grain of salt):

  • Democrats looking strong (landslide) in 2020, assuming Trump is the opponent.
  • Biden is way ahead (in the multi-way race – note he has his niche to himself)
  • If Trump were not nominated, generic Democrats are less trusted on most “top issues”, except health care.
  • Republicans thinking about ditching Trump must face the unpopularity of impeachment.
  • Top issue for Registered Voters (RV), and who-do-you-trust-on-this-issue
    • 30% economy  , who-do-you-trust: D37 / R42
    • 19% security   , who-do-you-trust:  D34 / R44
    • 15% health     ,  who-do-you-trust: D44 / R34
    • 15% seniors issues , who-do-you-trust: not clear
  • RV’s responding that issue is top-importance or important-but-not-top
    • 75% reduce deficit
    • 73% health care
    • 65% infrastucture
    • 55% inequality
    • 54% climate change
    • 42% build wall
    • 41% impeach trump
  • Dems’ voting intentions in multi way primary:
    • 33% Biden
    • 15% Sanders
    • 10% Harris
    • 6%  Warren
    • 6%  O’rourke
  • Biden/Sanders numbers, vs respondent’s-top-issue:
    • more %Biden   when top issue is security or seniors
    • more %Sanders when top issue is econ or health
  • Trump re-election voting intentions:
    • 36% of RV’s “certain or probably” to re-elect
    • maxes out at 41% when slicing demographcs by age
  • Independents on the issues:
    • Independents don’t significantly deviate from RV’s by much…
    • With a single exception – national security (D20 / R39 among Indeps)
Selected details
----------------------

Survey of ~2000 Registered Voters 
(who were willing to take a VERY long online survey)

adjusted(?) proportions:
Dem 34%
Rep 32%
Ind 33%
Northeast 17%
Midwest 23%
South 37%
West 22%

========
TOP ISSUES
group : econ secur health seniors
-------------------------------------
RV        : 30% 19% 15% 15%
Dem       : 30% 6% 20% 19%
Repub     : 27% 38% 10% 13%
Indep     : 32% 15% 14% 13%
Northeast : 26% 16% 19% 18%
Midwest   : 31% 18% 15% 15% 
South     : 31% 19% 15% 15%
West      : 31% 23% 11% 12%
18-29     : 36% 11% 14% 2% 
30-44     : 36% 16% 18% 3%
45-54     : 36% 19% 16% 8%
55-64     : 27% 24% 17% 20%
65+       : 16% 24% 9% 38%

=======

who do you trust on: "economy"
   favors R, except in northeast
   (note: "jobs" essentially the same): 
RV:        37% D / 42% R
Ind:       24% D / 36% R
Northeast: 45% D / 39% R
Midwest:   34% D / 42% R
South:     37% D / 43% R
West:      34% D / 43% R

who do you trust on: "health care"
   favors D
RV:        44 D / 34 R
Ind:       35 D / 23 R
Northeast: 53 D / 31 R
Midwest:   42 D / 35 R
South:     43 D / 36 R
West:      40 D / 34 R

who do you trust on: "immigration" 
   favors R, extept in northeast
RV:        38 D / 40 R
Ind:       26 D / 34 R
Northeast: 47 D / 38 R
Midwest:   36 D / 40 R
South:     36 D / 43 R
West:      37 D / 39 R

who do you trust on: "national security"
   favors R
RV:        34 D / 44 R
Ind:       20 D / 39 R !!
Northeast: 41 D / 40 R
Midwest:   31 D / 44 R
South:     33 D / 45 R
West:      32 D / 45 R

who do you trust on: "economic inequality"
    no winner
RV:        26 D / 29 R
Ind:       24 D / 27 R
Northeast: 28 D / 32 R
Midwest:   25 D / 28 R
South:     28 D / 29 R
West:      23 D / 29 R

==============

how important: "reduce deficit" 
    %top / %important (%top-or-important)
------------------------------------
RV:        39/36 (75% important or top)
Ind:       39/33 (72%)
Northeast: 38/37
Midwest:   40/36
South:     40/35
West:      36/36

how important: "healthcare reform"
  %top / %important (%top-or-important)
------------------------------------
RV: 41/32 (73% important or top)
In: 40/31 (71%)
NE: 42/34
MW: 40/33
S:  44/30
W:  37/33

how important: "infrastructure"
  %top / %important (%top-or-important)
------------------------------------
RV: 28/37 (65% important or top)
In: 28/35 (63%)
NE: 29/40
MW: 30/35
S:  29/37
W:  26/37

how important: "reduce economic inequality"
  %top / %important (%top-or-important)
------------------------------------
RV: 26/29 (55% important or top)
In: 24/27
NE: 28/32
MW: 25/28
S:  28/29
W:  23/29

how important: "climate change"
  %top / %important (%top-or-important)
------------------------------------
RV: 26/28 (54% important or top)
In: 25/30
NE: 32/31
MW: 24/28
S:  25/28
W:  26/28

how important: "impeach Trump"
  %top / %important (%top-or-important)
------------------------------------
RV: 27/14 (41% important or top)
In: 26/13
NE: 31/16
MW: 26/12
S:  27/14
W:  22/15

how important: "build wall"
  %top / %important (%top-or-important)
------------------------------------
RV: 23/19 (42% important or top)
In: 19/19
NE: 18/18
MW: 26/17
S:  24/20
W:  24/19

================

Vote Intention: Dem Primary?
  Biden 33%
  Sanders 15%
  Warren 6%
  O'Rourke 6%
  Harris 10%

Top Issue Econ         Biden 20 , Sanders 15
Top Issue Secur        Biden 15 , Sanders 5
Top Issue Health       Biden 22 , Sanders 14
Top Issue Medicare/SS  Biden 24 , Sanders 11


Vote Intention: Re-elect Trump?

group %definite %probably (%definite-or-probably)
---------------------------------------
RV     26/10 (36)
Dem    2/2
Rep    62/17
Ind    15/22
NE     21/11
MW     25/11
S      30/8
W      24/11
18-29  14/10 (24)
30-44  20/9 (29)
45-54  31/11 (42)
55-64  32/10 (42)
65+    31/10 (41)

From → Uncategorized

2 Comments
  1. This is disturbing. I’d assumed that Sanders, Warren, AOC, etc. were on the popular side of the economic issues. I would like to think that the Politico poll is not as accurate as, say, the Pew poll.

    • Yeah, I feel the same way. Almost everything in this poll was more to the conservative side than I was expecting – so maybe the poll format is self-selecting in some way.

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