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Dem Primary: TX and CA polls

November 19, 2019

Brief look at Primary polls for Texas and California.
(using fivethirtyeight‘s handy collection of polls.)

California:

  • Biden, Warren in mid 20’s, Sanders around 20%
  • Warren + Sanders together more than double Biden in nearly every poll
  • Harris is down to single digits, hasn’t cleared 15% in any poll since August
  • Buttigieg is in the 10% ballpark, within striking distance of 15% which would be a big deal
  • Total for candidates highly likely to drop out before super tuesday: ~6%

Texas:

  • There’s one poll since Beto dropped out. Biden=28 Warren=19 Sanders=18
  • This seems to be slight deterioration for Biden in relation to Sanders+Warren,
    vs when Beto was in and getting 15%. Sanders and Warren seem to have picked up a good chunk of his support.
  • Buttigieg not getting much traction
  • Total for candidates highly likely to drop out before super tuesday: ~10%

These states are going early (Mar 3 Super Tuesday), have high spanish population, high population overall, and will set the tone for the rest of the race.

Reminder: The 15% minimum threshold for scoring delegates is an important part of strategy here. At the moment, it looks like only Biden, Warren, and Sanders will be going home with delegates. Harris looks to be on her way out, and Buttigieg, although moving up in CA, isn’t there yet.

Candidates who are likely to stay in the race thru super tuesday, but unlikely to clear 15%, will probably add up to 15-20% of votes. (i.e. Harris, Yang, Gabbard, probably Buttigieg). These are split pretty evenly in terms of conservative vs progressive, with Buttigieg being the wildcard, since he has a shot at 15% in CA. Also Gabbard is kindof in her own category, as she defines herself with her anti-war foreign policy.

Also take all state polls with a grain of salt. LV models are prone to being wrong when there are candidates who find their support among voters who would otherwise be inconsistent to turn out. (such as Sanders, or Trump for that matter).

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