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US: Vote Tuesday Nov. 6th (second to last reminder)

November 3, 2018

Just checking in… If you’re in the US go vote.

If you have an all day mountain top retreat on Tuesday, get an absentee ballot – look up the board of elections for your locality (typically county level), they’ll have instructions. Easiest to go in person to the office.


Predictions: not much changed vs past weeks. As others have said, the polls include assumptions about “likely voter” turnout based on past elections, that might not hold true this time, and might deviate from the established patterns differently in different parts of the country. I think Republicans have a shot to outperform in a couple states where independents are mostly white and breaking to Democrats in polls (MO?, MT?), while Democrats could do well where independents are more Latino (Southwest, TX, CA). The Latino population is a younger overall, and just as a result of this is less likely to vote, but Trump has done such a thorough job being an ass, that is where the Democrats have significant upside potential. Personally I think turnout will be high nationally on both sides, so I do think it will come down to the regional breakdowns. I think Democrats will clean up in the House. Senate as predicted elsewhere, Republicans pick up 1-2 seats.


Locally:

Leaves fell all at once, basically in the last 3-4 days. Almost no red or brown leaves, all yellow, and a touch of green. Like you just got out of the elevator on the Yellow Floor at a the world’s biggest paint store. Shades and gradients on each individual tree, I don’t think I’ve seen it like this in a long time. Primary-schoolbus-yellow, tan, sungold, but also lemon-lime (on maples!), copper, and in the right afternoon light, some sunlit emerald tones I can’t even name.

I already had 3-4 different campaign visits knocking on my door / leaving flyers in the final weekend from a variety of local campaigns. I’m getting these obnoxious Tom Reed (R-NY23) ads on YouTube. I guess if you got the cash spend it. Curious how that race will turn out. This district’s demographics are in his favor. Fortunately, his campaign is mostly too cheap to pay for the kind of ad you are forced to watch until the end.

Also, while driving thru Jersey the other week, I caught a Spanish language radio ad for the beleaguered Bob Menendez, complete with merengue music (I think?) … Work it Bob!

I’m planning to vote Democrat at the Congressional district / State Assembly / State Senate / local levels, and 3rd party (Green) at the NY State level.

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