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Sanders 2020 [Niko House / Medium]

January 28, 2018

An opinion piece entitled No, Bernie 2020 Will Not Be The Same As 2016touches on a lot of important points.

linkhttps://medium.com/@nikohouse/no-bernie-2020-will-not-be-the-same-as-2016-cd0dddde481a   [via NakedCapitalism]


Thoughts/reactions here:

  1. House is correct to anticipate, from the DNC, a cynical reception of a Sanders run.
  2. It would be ideal to impress upon the DNC that they actually do need the votes of more left leaning Democrats to win a general election. Even though those voters can be pushed aside during the primaries (a contest in which there are no Republicans and in some states, no independents).
  3. In order to make the above point stick, there must be a reasonably well known third-party “protest” vote option for left wing voters to escape to. Only then will the DNC grudgingly integrate the positions of candidates such as Sanders into the Democratic party. Without the simultaneous possibility of voters escaping to a Jill Stein or Ralph Nader, you can be sure that the Democrats will run John Kerry’s or Joe Biden’s indefinitely. They may have success on occasion, but it is a losing strategy for the Democratic party and an even more losing strategy for the country as a whole.
  4. As of what we know now, I think the 2020 Democratic primary will look different from the 2016, due to California (and therefore maybe other states) advancing their primary to Super Tuesday in March. (see map below).

primary-2020-as-of-20709xx

sourcehttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2020-presidential-primary-calendar.html

5. After 4 years of Republicans running the federal government, we’ll be looking at a more conservative baseline for the political environment. Candidates like Biden or like Romney (in the event Trump doesn’t clean up his image), will start to look more attractive in that light, even though they have little to offer to real voters, who will continue to be motivated by economic inequality. (Don’t expect the Trump Administration to fix that).

 

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