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Qatar: A war over two irreconcilable narratives? [Andreas Krieg / Defence In Depth]

July 1, 2017

A little more geopolitics for a lushly humid and rainy day.

I recently scanned through a bunch of Wikipedia bios of the many Saudi Princes, trying to glean some insight into what might be going on with the recent reorganization in the succession – and the situation with Qatar. Unfortunately, the history of the Saudi Royal family tree is extensive and therefore bewilderingly confusing, with the cast of characters (princes in charge of key ministries) changing every few years as the crown itself has passed from brother to brother in the royal family. One has better things to do than research the alliances and intrigues of the court, which anyway would not be available to the public.

So instead, here is another perspective, which paints Qatar as a nation actively promoting an anti-authoritarian ideology, which several of its GCC neighbors naturally find threatening.

This of course all leads back to an ongoing hobby, trying to guess which country gets invaded next. Trump seems like he could use some more “action” to distract from the daily humiliations in the media and of course his own foot-in-mouth Twitter routine — even if that all is now his job, essentially.

And if Syria ever stabilizes, and ISIS is finally wiped out, we must remember that the seeds planted by the neocons in the Iraq and Libya still continue to bear fruit – probably several thousand new violent extremists minted each year, worldwide. They will have to go somewhere, which presents a problem.

So for the next decent sized benevolent intervention (countries the size of Lebanon or Yemen don’t count for this), my money’s on Egypt. By 2025 let’s say. Maybe with French involvement. But as we’re seeing, the regional powers, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran – have an agenda of their own. So, confusion on top of confusion. The wave of side effects from the Iraq thing is still spreading through the world, so this stuff matters.

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