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Nightly pre-election blog V

November 5, 2016

This will in all likelyhood be the final entry in this series.

POLLS: Nationally, Clinton lead appears stable at +2 to +3%.

Note the early voting. As of 11/2, per Today’s ABC national poll:

52% of LV’s say will vote in person
20% of LV’s say have mail ballot / plan to early vote
27% of LV’s say already voted

More importantly, half the votes are now cast in FL, and Clinton appears ahead (though within technical MOE and especially well within observed variations in polling). See separate post on this. However, if that polling holds up, it would be decisive. More importantly, FL voting in large part will not be exposed to Halloween surprise effects.

PREDICTIONS: whiff. No indictments. No resignations.

FBI: Clinton camp strikes back. Likely purge to come.

WIKILEAKS: keep coming… to be further processed after election in all likelyhood. The leak watchers deserve some rest.

MEDIA TONE: sigh of relief, that the Halloween scare is over. Back to inane stories about Trump’s getting away with lies because he is a man etc.

FIN (ISH): Since I regard both Clinton and Trump as both being near zero-value outcomes, and in part to clear out my weekend, I’m calling the race, with 90% Clinton chance of winning[*]. Barring something huuuuge 😉

* Leaving aside questions of legitimacy due to media collusion.

Elections function as a popularity contest. This is for very good reasons — the largest possible number of judges, to maximize the ability to learn and adapt, ensuring integrity in the long run. This year we had more of a slap fight than a reasoned debate but that’s actually not relevant to where I’m going. Where I’m going is this: Even when you have a reasoned debate, scoring good media coverage isn’t just a big part of it — it’s the whole thing. And now Wikileaks has taught us where we should set our expectation of impartiality for media coverage.

I said there would be a positive redemptive message at the end and guess what, that was it. Read that last paragraph again 🙂 not the silly link, the part about the media! 🙂

Oh and don’t forget to vote. If you are tempted to base either your vote or your decision whether or not to vote on what you think others are doing, or who others would vote for, go pour yourself a cup of cold water, dump it on your head, and re-think. (Repeat as necessary).



Jill Stein 2016!



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