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nightly pre-election blog IV

November 4, 2016

Another busy day, throwing this together quickly.

POLLS – With last weekend’s effect now largely transmitted in polling, Clinton’s slide stabilized. However, there’s more to come. Surprises after tomorrow we’ll just have to see in actual election results. RCP has Clinton +66 in no-tossup, with FL and NC tied, PA, CO for Clinton within moe, NV OH for Trump within moe. Today’s crop of national popular vote polls has at Clinton holding steady at +2 or perhaps +3 (with a 12 point range amongst polls released today). So most definitely a statistical tie for popular vote. Odds on Predictit: 68-36… Clinton is hanging in there.

PREDICTIONS – “Denial” phase to begin in earnest among Clinton camp? Barely… not screamingly so. Trump in statistical tie? very much.  Media tone confused? No, they’ve actually become more professional instead. Fitting given the latest leaks. International distraction? No, thankfully.

FBI – wow, they’ve gone all in, haven’t they? If Clinton wins despite all this, mad heads will roll. However, the hits keep coming…

WIKILEAKS – Speaking of which, it seems that Assange has actually held back some significant stuff. Did he send what he held back to the FBI instead? Did they send it to him? Most recently Fox News was revealed to be part of Clinton’s network of pliably friendly media. We said earlier that the MSM was burning their credibility trustworthiness this election – Yes, to a crisp.

MEDIA TONE – headline scan. CNN: takes a small but noticeable step toward neutrality NYT,WAPO: arms-length 3rd person voice for reportage, op-eds firmly pro Clinton. Also, notably, the Blame-the-Russians excuse now appears spent, saw hardly any of it today, and it is being walked back somewhat.

TOMORROW – my facetious predictions from Saturday had an indictment of Weiner and Abedin penciled in to round out the workweek. (don’t hold your breath.) However, CNN does report Abedin’s presence has been reduced dramatically. Also, I think it’s about time for another resignation.

til tomorrow, peace

Jill Stein 2016!


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