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graphs: National Poll, Clinton Lead vs Date, time series by pollster

November 4, 2016

[update]  see ABC’s poll release (PDF) for a nicer looking daily series. Also note large overall numbers of early voters.

Data is from Huffpo’s aggregation. (Downloaded CSV file format). Processed with google spreadsheet.

I graphed the 7 prominent national pollsters (selecting the most prominent ones who also had polls come out this week), so we can get an idea about noise in the time series of the national polls, broken out by pollster.

The figure plotted below is as follows:

%Clinton_Lead = %Clinton – %Trump.

Note that most of these pollsters asked both the 2-way and 4-way question. I always graphed the results of the first question asked. (for spreadsheet convenience)

For visual clarity, I made 2 plots… it was too cluttered to put all 7 series on one plot.

The main message is if we see a 3-5 point change week over week within a particular pollsters series, that’s actually fairly normal (frustrating). Here are the plots.

20161103-group1

20161103-group2

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