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55% LV’s already voted in FL. FOX FL poll: Clinton +4%

November 4, 2016

UPDATE  – monday morning finds 2 polls showing either a Tie or Clinton +1 in FL. Still a race. Original text follows.

CAUTION! Still early. Polls have been wrong. -BUT-  2 articles in this post (possibly from single data source).

FL: 4.9MM already voted early/mail as of Thurs Morning (2012 FL turnout was 8.4MM). The breakdown so far was R=40.0% D=39.8% . Not sure if this underrepresents independents – Floridians registered independent are high 20%’s (separate source). This article has that among independents, Trump leads +6 to +9.

FL Poll: FOX Tampa Bay/Orlando, Nov 1-2. 603 respondents across FL state. 4% MOE due to random sampling error, plus of course actual variation between polls which (nationally at least) has been more than that. With that, the toplines that matter:
Voted early: 55%
Results among LV’s (which includes Already Voted): Clinton +4%

So if accurate, this would probably be the election right there.

Jill Stein 2016!


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  1. Sean Trende and the folks at RCP had a good piece Thursday warning not to put too much into early voting numbers in part because it is unclear how much of the voting is simply cannibalizing the voter turnout on the day of the election.

    • Yes true – the remaining voters will be the undecided’s who have slightly different biases. I’m starting with the impression that Clinton is a bit ahead to begin with, so with earlies baked in there is less likelyhood of changing the outcome.

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