55% LV’s already voted in FL. FOX FL poll: Clinton +4%
UPDATE – monday morning finds 2 polls showing either a Tie or Clinton +1 in FL. Still a race. Original text follows.
CAUTION! Still early. Polls have been wrong. -BUT- 2 articles in this post (possibly from single data source).
FL: 4.9MM already voted early/mail as of Thurs Morning (2012 FL turnout was 8.4MM). The breakdown so far was R=40.0% D=39.8% . Not sure if this underrepresents independents – Floridians registered independent are high 20%’s (separate source). This article has that among independents, Trump leads +6 to +9.
FL Poll: FOX Tampa Bay/Orlando, Nov 1-2. 603 respondents across FL state. 4% MOE due to random sampling error, plus of course actual variation between polls which (nationally at least) has been more than that. With that, the toplines that matter:
Voted early: 55%
Results among LV’s (which includes Already Voted): Clinton +4%
So if accurate, this would probably be the election right there.
Jill Stein 2016!