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nightly pre election blog III

November 2, 2016

161102120458-clinton-trump-split-1102-exlarge-169POLLS – National popular vote now definitely within polling margin of error. RCP no-tossup map has Clinton up by just 273-265  electoral votes. States: NC is transitioning to toss-up.

PREDICTIONS – for today, I had Republicans unite behind trump (yes ish), Congress GOP promises Clinton impeachment (yes), national polls tied, actually that was for either today or tomorrow (yes), Trump says something new that sets him back (no), Clinton PAC’s ask her to drop out and she refuses (impossible to verify), and Clinton PAC’s split in supporting her, cutting deal with Trump as a plan-B (we will soon see).

FBI – Pres. Obama weighs in on Comey’s work: politico, twitter-video. (note on video: Pres. appears to be reading from prompter at viewer’s lower left. He seems attuned to the irony in the back-and-forth of the situation.) Also, a story on how, per Republicans, the FBI investigation actually cut the Clinton staffers a break by not taking their comm and laptop gear. politico.

WIKILEAKS – nothing too exciting

MEDIA TONE – headline tone qualitatively same as yesterday for NYT and WAPO, largely reverting to a more professionally distant 3rd person.

TOMORROW – polls should at this point register the effects of the FBI’s Halloween scare. If Trump’s momentum continues, look for a short but intense “denial” phase among the more vocal Clinton outlets. I should reiterate that I want Trump to win just as little as I want Clinton to win. The better business bureau says they’re both beyond bad. I also guessed that if there were to be a major international distraction by esteemed allies, it would happen tomorrow.

Help control the pet population, have your pets spayed or neutered!

Jill Stein 2016!



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