Election poll update, USC Dornsife, possible sampling issues w/ African Americans
Continuing the look at the USC Dornsife (/ LA Times) daily polling. Remember, we’re looking for trends- this poll has been consistently several points in favor of Trump compared to other national polls.
In the headline, looks like Trump’s bump is fading. Zooming in to the data, it seems a good chunk of that most recent gains this poll showed him with, was possibly due to what appears to be some kind of fluke, possibly sampling issues or reduced response rate, with African American portion of the sample. I seriously doubt Clinton’s troubles really made 15% of African Americans temporarily decide Trump is OK. This is the second time this happened, but it appears they fixed it again, whatever it was.
Additional observations: Both the bump and the fade were mostly among males – Unexpected. Most volatile were age 18-34’s, no surprise. Steady gain for trump among age 65+, this should concern Clinton greatly, since in the US, your percent chance of voting for President is approximately your age. (I didn’t copy the individual images for these, look at the “Characteristics of Candidate Support” tab in the link above)
Also, yesterday I threw the latest RealClearPolitics swing state poll numbers into the election map calculator, and with those, Trump was squeaking out a narrow edge with 275 electoral votes, but of course in many of the swing states it is definitely too close to call.
Jill Stein 2016!