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Election polling- past week’s changes lean to female voters

August 4, 2016

UPDATE – noticed that the graph scales were unequal! / UPDATE2- looks like the live version on the site fixed the graph scales so they’re equal now for comparable graphs – yay!

I am looking at the USC Dornslife / LA Times polling results. This is an interesting poll. A little over 3000 survey respondents are asked election related questions repeatedly, once a week. (1/7th of the respondents each day). So if something were to happen that changed everyone’s mind all at once, we would see the change kick in over a ~1 week lag because of that. There may be other differences in poll methodology too, that would offset the results of this poll up or down vs other polls, but the point here is we have a time series to look for trends.

Not sure what this means, just interesting/unexpected. Note the scales are different, which exaggerates the effect! Careful reading graphs!! Anyway, from 7/27 to 8/3,female voters went from +1 Clinton to +12 Clinton, whereas male went from +16 Trump to +10 Trump.

chart

chart (1)

Looks like the Clinton campaign is showing a healthy post-convention bounce (or, possibly, their negative campaign game is starting to work).

Note: to see original, follow the link, and click on the tab that says “characteristics of canditate support”.

 


> Jill Stein 2016! <

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