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Dem. Polls, Sanders wins Wisconsin

April 6, 2016

Sanders wins Wisconsin by about +13% vs Clinton. (as of now, with 87% precincts reporting).

Just for future reference, the past week’s polls had him in a range of between +1 and +8%.

In RCP’s latest compilation of flawed but still useful polls, Sanders leads Clinton by 2% nationally, continues to outperform Clinton in pairings vs ALL republican opponents, and is closing in on her in NY and PA, as is his pattern.

As usual, most of the media portray Sanders’ chances as minimal. In fact the Democratic race is actually closer than the Republican one, with Clinton’s shrinking lead is about +11%, or  +252 delegates out of 2300 pledged delegates awarded so far, with about 2000 more to go. This is in contrast to the Republican race, where Trump’s shrinking lead is +226 delegates out of 1206 delegates that Trump and Cruz have so far, bigger percentage-wise.

However, some Republican primaries are winner-take-all, so a few narrow wins in key states can change things a lot, and if Cruz replicate his success in the midwest in the big coastal states, he is likely to tie Trump, or at least deny Trump a clean majority, leading to a showdown at the Republican convention.

While the Democrats can be proud of actually assigning pledged delegates proportionately, the Democratic primaries feature the not-even-slightly-democratic “Superdelegate system”.  Basically, superdelegates are individuals selected by the party who have the same say as tens of thousands of regular voters. Major media has automatically assumed the vast majority of them will go to Clinton from the very first day of the race. If Clinton’s record of supporting belligerent foreign policy weren’t enough, or her association with deregulation and policies to favor transfer of wealth to big business, the Democratic party’s leaning on the scales for her via the superdelegates is also a compelling reason not to vote for her, IMO. [update – see this for more perspective on the superdelegate system ]

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