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Trump’s Advantage: 55% of remaining Republican delegates winner-take-all

March 17, 2016

I noticed something looking at the RealClearPolitics delegate chart.

Most of the states that have voted so far were “proportional”.

Of the 1067 Republican delegates left, 597 are in winner-take-all (WTA) states.

WTA states are further divided into plain WTA, and WTA-with-congressional-district-delegates (WTA+D).

For example, FL was WTA, where Trump got 100% of the FL delegates with 46% of the vote. IL was WTA+D, where Trump got 74% of the IL delegates with 39% of the vote.

So let’s run these numbers.

Assumptions:

Trump gets 40% of the voters going forward, maintains a plurality in most states, and picks up delegates as follows:

85% of the 217 delegates in WTA states.

70% of the 380 delegates in WTA+D states.

40% of the 349 delegates in proportional states.

Total in this scenario: 590 delegates.

Trump needs 563 more to clinch. I’m talking about a clean majority, not plurality (!).

(For comparison, consider a scenario where Cruz gets enough of a plurality to approximately tie Trump in the end. In this case, the WTA’s would go in his favor. I think it would have to look something like Cruz:Trump:Kasich as 45:35:20, averaged over the remaining states. The election calendar gives him a month to make this happen).


 

source for delegate count data:

 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html


 

PS:

In posting the above, I think it is significant for everyone. I thought the “not-Trump” wing of the Republican party had a viable strategy by running Cruz and Kasich separately and then combining their totals at the convention. Looks like that strategy alone will not work. They will almost certainly need to get one of their candidates up to first place to even have a brokered convention.

For the record, I not a Trump supporter because I am very put off by his divisive and offensive rhetoric, which is not a useful way forward for the U.S. — I’m trying to be really polite here — Although it’s worth saying his supporters are on to something in their rejection of both mainstream Republicans and Democrats.

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